Motilal Oswal stated that market is ruling barely under its long-term common when it comes to valuations. The brokerage stated it’s biased in direction of largecaps, with a 76% allocation in its mannequin portfolio. “We’re OW on Consumption, BFSI, IT, Industrials, Healthcare, and Actual Property, whereas we’re UW on Oil & Gasoline, Cement, Cars, and Metals,” it additional added.
Market closes in crimson for the fourth consecutive month: The Nifty-50 additional corrects 0.6% MoM in Jan’25 after a 2% fall in Dec’24. The market closed in crimson for the fourth consecutive month. Notably, the index was extraordinarily unstable and hovered round 1,440 factors earlier than closing 136 factors decrease. Over the past 12 months, largecaps and smallcaps have gained 8% and 6%, respectively, underperforming midcaps, which have risen 11%. Over the past 5 years, midcaps have considerably outperformed largecaps by 101%, whereas smallcaps have outperformed largecaps by 75%.
DII inflows vs. FII outflows – the second-highest ever excessive in Jan’25: Notably, DII inflows (at USD10b) and FII outflows (at USD8.4b) have been at second report highs in Jan’25 (DIIs inflows at USD12.8b and FIIs outflows at USD10.9b in Oct’24). DII flows into equities have been the very best ever at USD62.9b in CY24 vs. inflows of USD22.3b in CY23. Conversely, FIIs witnessed fairness outflows of USD0.8b in CY24 vs. inflows of USD21.4b in CY23.
All main sectors finish decrease in Jan’25: Among the many sectors, Media (-13%), Actual Property (-12%), Healthcare (-8%), Utilities (-6%), and Capital Items (-5%) have been the highest laggards MoM. The breadth was balanced in Jan’25, with 25 Nifty shares closing greater. Bajaj Finance (+16%), Maruti Suzuki (+13%), Tata Shopper (+12%), Bajaj Finserv (+11%), and ONGC (+10%) have been the highest performers, whereas Trent (-19%), Dr Reddy’s Labs (-12%), BPCL (-11%), Adani Ports (-11%), and HCL Applied sciences (-10%) have been the important thing laggards.
India among the many laggards in Jan’25: Among the many key international markets, the UK (+6%), Korea (+5%), Brazil (+5%), Russia MICEX (+4%), the US (+3%), Taiwan (+2%), and MSCI EM (+2%) ended greater in native forex phrases. Conversely, China (-3%), Japan (-1%), and India (-1%) ended decrease MoM in Jan’25. During the last 12 months, the MSCI India Index (+9%) has underperformed the MSCI EM Index (+12%). During the last 10 years, the MSCI India Index has notably outperformed the MSCI EM index by a sturdy 144%. Whereas India’s share of the worldwide market cap stood at 3.9%, a 10-month low, it stays above its historic common of two.7%.
Company earnings in line to this point in 3QFY25: The 3QFY25 earnings are in step with modest expectations, however ahead earnings revisions are the weakest in current instances, with downgrades far outpacing upgrades, particularly in our non-Nifty-50 universe. The Nifty-50 is prone to clock a modest ~5% EPS progress in FY25E (following a 20%+ CAGR throughout FY20-24). For the 183 firms inside our MOFSL Universe, gross sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT have been +5%/8%/7%/3% YoY (vs. est. of +6%/6%/5%/4%). Excluding Metals and O&G, the MOFSL Universe firms recorded a gross sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT progress of 10%/10%/11%/8% YoY (vs. est. of +10%/10%/10%/8%) in 3QFY25 to this point.
Our view: Weak point in consumption, coupled with a drag from commodities, has put strain on earnings, whilst BFSI, Healthcare, Capital Items, and Tech have posted a wholesome print. With the federal government shifting its focus from capex to consumption in its finances, we anticipate a realignment in portfolios and additional moderation within the multiples of Industrials/Capital Items/Manufacturing sectors. The underperformance of Shopper Staples may additionally be behind, in our view, because the INR1t tax reduction for middle-class taxpayers works its means by the wallets and displays in shopper spending within the quarters to return. We anticipate multiples of Consumption firms, particularly Staples, to rebound after a gradual de-rating since FY20. The Nifty is buying and selling at a 12-month ahead P/E of ~20x, under its long-period common (LPA) of 20.6x. General, with broader markets buying and selling at vital premiums vs. their very own LPA and Nifty, we stay biased towards largecaps, with a 76% allocation in our mannequin portfolio. We’re OW on Consumption, BFSI, IT, Industrials, Healthcare, and Actual Property, whereas we’re UW on Oil & Gasoline, Cement, Cars, and Metals.
Prime concepts: Largecaps – ICICI Financial institution, SBI, Bharti Airtel, HUL, L&T, LTIMindtree, Solar Pharma, Maruti Suzuki, M&M, Titan Firm, Trent, and Cummins India; Midcaps and Smallcaps – Indian Lodges, Dixon Tech, BSE, Godrej Properties, JSW Infra, Coforge, Web page Industries, IPCA Labs, Metro Manufacturers, Angel One, and Vinati Organics.